2026 Voter Swarm Election Forecast
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U.S. House · 435 seats
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chance Democrats win the House
U.S. Senate · 35 seats up
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chance Democrats win the Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
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Projected Democratic seat range
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See all 435 House races
| District | Current Holder | Projected Margin | Win Chance | Kalshi Market | Rating |
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U.S. Senate
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Full Senate composition (100 seats)
Faded squares represent seats not up for election in 2026; solid squares represent the 35 seats on the ballot, colored by the favored party.
See all 35 Senate races
| State | Current Holder | Projected Margin | Win Chance | Kalshi Market | Rating |
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Races that will decide Congress
The closest Senate and House elections on the ballot, ordered from nearest to a 50–50 toss-up.
Biggest Model vs. Market Disagreements
Competitive races where the Voter Swarm forecast diverges most from live Kalshi pricing
Competitive Senate races
| State | Current Holder | Projected Margin | Win Chance | Kalshi Market | Rating |
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Competitive House races
| District | Current Holder | Projected Margin | Win Chance | Kalshi Market | Rating |
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Nov 2, 2026
Election Eve Forecast
One email with our final 2026 House & Senate call the day before Election Day.
Model vs. Kalshi · Live
Top 3 Mispriced Races Today
Independent Project
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Data: MEDSL, VEST, HEDA, CES, Heideman (2026), OpenElections, UF Election Lab, FiveThirtyEight, and Wikipedia contributors (sources & licenses).